Predicting Monsoon a challenge in Indian Farm sector

Predicting monsoon rains, vital for India's farm output and economic growth, remains a challenge for the country as its forecasting skills are inadequate, scientists and weather officials said on Tuesday.

"Monsoon is still a mystery phenomenon. It poses a great challenge in forecasting," Ajit Tyagi, director general of the India Meteorological Department, told the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum in the western Indian city of Pune.


Rainfall in India has often been either much lower or higher than forecasts.

Monsoon forecasts are keenly watched by traders and analysts as 60 percent of India's farms depend on rainfall for irrigation and fluctuating output makes India a large buyer or seller of wheat, sugar and rice, influencing global supplies and prices.

Last year, India saw the worst drought in 37 after initial forecasts of normal rain in the June-September monsoon season.

"Monsoon forecast continues to be a challenge," said Tyagi, who heads the government's weather department.

Indian officials say last year's monsoon season, which began with the driest June in 83 years, was well below forecasts of both government and private agencies.

B.N. Goswami, director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said India's forecasting skills were poor.

"Our skill in the statistical model is poor. We are trying to develop a real time dynamic model. Skills of various models of predictions are very poor," he told Reuters.

Early indications suggest improved rainfall in 2010, raising hopes of a rebound in crop output after the worst drought in 37 years ravaged rice, cane and oilseeds crops in India last year. [ID:nSGE63904E]

Weather officials say weakening of the El Nino phenomenon, which upsets normal weather patterns, was good for monsoon rains.

"El Nino is likely to weaken and reach a neutral state by middle of June," Rupa Kumar Kolli, a climate expert at the World Meteorological Organisation, told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

"It (weak El Nino) is not likely to be bad for Indian monsoon this year. Regional weather parameters will have more influence on this year's monsoon," he said.

India's weather office issues its formal weather forecast in the second half of April and updates its prediction in June after including latest weather data in its model.

It considers several parameters such as surface temperature in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and other sets of data in its statistical model.