Stratfor, a body which deals with strategic issues, however said that Naxalism is “fairly contained” in India.
It expressed these views in a report while taking a “closer Look” at the Naxal problem in India, calling it as one of the world¿s longest-running insurgencies.
Stratfor also cautioned against deploying the military, a suggestion made by some political leaders in India in the wake of spate of Naxal attacks in the recent months.
“Even if the government did decide to deploy the military to combat the Naxalites in eastern India, it would face a tough fight against a well-entrenched movement--something New Delhi is not likely to undertake lightly or any time soon,” it said.
Stratfor also noted that Naxalites are honing the capability to construct and deploy IEDs, conduct armed raids and maintain an extensive, agile and responsive intelligence network.
“Despite threats and indications from Naxalites that they will attack urban targets throughout India, the group has yet to demonstrate the intent or ability to strike outside of the Red Corridor.
But the group¿s leaders and bombmakers could develop such a capability, and it will be important to watch for any indication that cadres are developing the tradecraft for urban terrorism,” the think tank said.
Stratfor said even if the Maoists do not expand their target set and conduct more “terrorist-type” attacks, the Naxalite challenge to the state could materialize in other ways.
“The Naxalite organization is a sophisticated one that relies not only on militant tactics but also on social unrest and political tactics to increase its power,” it noted.
The think-tank also said the flexibility and autonomy among its various component parts, along with the group¿s local support and indigenous knowledge of its turf, make the Naxalites a dangerous adversary against the slower moving, more deliberate and more predictable CRPF.
“Movements like that of the Naxalites have an array of motivations for why they do what they do, but self-preservation is always a very high priority,” it said.
Referring to the two-day Maoist bandh which ended yesterday, Stratfor said it is a tactic that showed just how powerful the rebels have become in the region, and it demonstrates their ability to affect day-to-day activity merely by threatening to stage an attack. The bandh was called to protest the death of a top Naxal leader Azad.
The news of Azad's death was unexpected, since India has had little luck capturing or killing key Naxalite leaders, but his absence is not expected to seriously hamper the movement, it said.
“The Naxalites are a large, well-organized force that will be able to replace him with little or no visible effect on operational capability. What was not surprising was that Azad¿s killing elicited a Naxalite response,” it added.
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